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John H. Cochrane

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❶If estimated data are used for nine months or more of the excess cost year, however, access will be phased over two purchases. As noted earlier, there appears to be a long-term shift in the terms of trade away from the traditional agricultural export crops in favour of food crops.

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First, fiscal space had improved in many countries before the global financial crisis. In advanced economies, following severe deteriorations during the crisis, many indicators of fiscal space have virtually returned to levels in the mids.

In contrast, fiscal space has shrunk in many emerging market and developing economies since the crisis. Second, financial crises tend to coincide with deterioration in multiple indicators of fiscal space, but they are often followed by reduced reliance on short-term borrowing. Finally, fiscal space narrows in energy-exporting emerging market and developing economies during oil price plunges but later expands, often because of procyclical fiscal tightening and, in some episodes, a recovery in oil prices.

This is partly because arm's-length trade depends more heavily than intra-firm trade on emerging market and developing economies EMDEs , where output growth has slowed sharply from elevated pre-crisis rates, and on sectors with rapid pre-crisis growth that boosted arm's-length trade pre-crisis but that have languished post-crisis.

Compounding such compositional effects, arm's-length trade is also more sensitive to changes in demand and real exchange rates. For example, the income elasticity of arm's-length exports is about one-fifth higher than that of intra-firm exports. Hence, post-crisis global growth weakness has weighed more on arm's-length trade than on intra-firm trade. Unaffiliated firms may also have been hindered more than multinational firms by constrained access to finance during the crisis, heightened policy uncertainty, and their typical firm-level characteristics.

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It also produces the Commodity Markets Outlook, policy-relevant research on topical issues, and timely updates on global economic developments. This semi-annual report analyzes economic developments and prospects globally, regionally, and nationally.

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The report forecasts prices for 46 key commodities, including oil. Collects important high-frequency data to provide a snapshot of global economic developments. Sources and Implications April With the benefit of hindsight, this paper provides a fresh and comprehensive look at the causes of the —16 collapse in oil prices and its impact on the global economy. Global Economic Monitoring Receive timely updates on the global economy.

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Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness? Ending Extreme Poverty and Sharing Prosperity: Progress and Policies The Coming U. Interest Rate Tightening Cycle: Local currency and dollar bonds achieve full insurance in standard small open economy models. Excessive Dollar Borrowing in Emerging Markets: Emerging market borrowers take on too much dollar debt because they don't internalize the contribution to financial fragility. Humanity, Artificial Intelligence, and the Return of Malthus.

Regulating Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Macroeconomics would benefit from greater methodological diversity. Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation? Both instruments are needed in emerging economies that are at risk of financial instability because of large capital inflows. Undervaluation through Foreign Reserve Accumulation: Reserve accumulation may trigger positive learning-by-doing externalities in the tradable sector and improve welfare.

Financial deregulation allows the financial sector to extract larger rents from the rest of society. From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Provides an introduction to quantitive models and the empirics of sudden stops, with ample online resources.

A primer that develops a simple formal model of emerging market balance sheet crises, externalities and capital flow regulation.

An introduction to the emerging new literature on prudential capital controls in emerging economies, cited in the FT's Economists' Forum and the Economist's Free Exchange. Crises in one area of the world economy cause "hot money" to flow into other areas and create the risk of serial financial crises.

Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows:

Has ESG affected stock performance?

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